Nobody I know cares about the Oscars, other than myself. I feel like when I bring up these movies to friends, I commonly get a reaction of “I’ve never heard of that.” Which is fine, I admit I waste a lot of time looking at movie websites and listening to Hollywood podcasts. It’s definitely time I could be using to do actual productive type things that will make me money or becoming a better human or becoming better because I have more money. I could buy cool jackets. Jackets are cool. So, it doesn’t make me better than you for seeing these movies, my wasted time is my burden to bear. I will say, however, you are missing out on some great stuff if the only time you went to the movies this year was to see Independence Day Resurgence and Suicide Squad. I’m in no way an expert and I haven’t seen all the nominated movies yet, but I will try to by the time they hand out them fancy naked golden men. So here goes… my unqualified opinion on who will win and who I’d choose to win.
I haven’t yet seen Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, or Lion but, I can all but guarantee, those movies aren’t going to win anyway. It really seems like a two horse race between La La Land and Moonlight. The only other one I could see sneaking in is Manchester by the Sea. The only ones nominated that appeared in my top 5 of the year list were Hell or High Water and La La Land, but that’s not to say, in particular, Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea weren’t great. I enjoyed both, very much, but they were very heavy so it’s tough to say they were a favourite. They both tore my emotions apart. So, that said…
Who Will Win- Moonlight
Who I Think Should Win- Moonlight
Every one of these nominees are amazing. They all have done tremendous work this year. To me, I thought Denis Villeneuve had the most to accomplish in his film. Arrival is an insanely complex story that he somehow makes work and weirdly understandable. Plus the performance he gets from Amy Adams is absolutely incredible. I don’t think he’ll win though. A really strong case can be made for Barry Jenkins as well because, to me, he created some of the most interesting shots for a movie of that scale than anything I’ve ever seen. Not only is the movie a gut punch but it’s so visually dynamic that I think he deserves a serious look. But…
Who Will Win- Damian Chazelle
Who I Think Should Win- Denis Villeneuve
I’m thrilled that Vigo Mortensen got a nomination, even though I didn’t see Captain Fantastic. I just like that dude. He won’t win… but I like that dude. Gosling is great in La La Land but come on… Casey Affleck killed me in Manchester By the Sea. It’s understated and
crushing it’s literally not just a song and dance.
Who Will Win- Casey Affleck
Who I Think Should Win- Casey Affleck
The absolute biggest snub is not nominating Amy Adams in Arrival. She wins in my book. You don’t have to nominate Meryl Streep every year. So…whatever… we’ll go with.
Who Will Win- Emma Stone
Who I Think Should Win- Amy Adams… but of the nominees… Emma Stone
Mahershala Ali got beat at the Golden Globes by a dude who isn’t even nominated for the
Oscar. I’m hoping for vindication.
Who Will Win- Mahershala Ali
Who I Think Should Win- Mahershala Ali
It’s tough because Michelle Williams is so great in Manchester by the Sea, but she is only in 3 scenes of the movie… but one, in particular, is so incredibly strong that I think she can win. Naomi Harris is my second choice.
Who Will Win- Michelle Williams
Who I Think Should Win- Michelle Williams
So there you go, the big 5 Oscar categories. Sing Street should have at least been nominated for best song, but alas, no love for my favorite movie of the year.